At 5-1 How Legitimate are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2025?

The Buccaneers are absolutely legitimate contenders early in the 2025 NFL season, sitting at 5-1 after a convincing 30-19 road win over the San Francisco 49ers on October 12.

This victory wasn’t a fluke, it was their first non-one-score game of the year, breaking a streak of nail-biters where they won four of their first five contests by three points or fewer, including game-winning drives in the final minute of regulation.

Despite missing star wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all game, plus rookie Emeka Egbuka exiting early with a hamstring injury, Tampa Bay dominated with balanced play: 256 passing yards, two TDs from QB Baker Mayfield, and a rushing committee that racked up key scores.

Their defense forced two turnovers from 49ers fill-in QB Mac Jones (who entered 3-0 but looked human with two INTs), including a pick-six setup on the opening drive.

What makes them legit? They’ve defied low preseason expectations (+2500 Super Bowl odds, 10th-best in the NFL) by starting 5-1 for the first time since 2010, leading the NFC South as four-time defending champs aiming for a fifth straight title.

The offense ranks top-10 in points per game despite injuries, thanks to Mayfield’s efficiency (top-5 in completion percentage and yards per attempt league-wide), while the defense—bolstered by offseason addition Haason Reddick—ranks middle-of-the-pack but excels in clutch spots (e.g., holding SF to 19 points despite their kicker nailing four field goals).

Head coach Todd Bowles’ bend-but-don’t-break scheme has been pivotal, turning close games into wins without relying on one superstar.

Who Deserves All the Credit for the 49ers Win?

Baker Mayfield deserves the lion’s share of the credit—he’s the engine driving this Bucs resurgence and the clear MVP frontrunner after this outing. Going 17/23 for 256 yards and two TDs without his top three receivers, Mayfield dissected a banged-up 49ers secondary, including a 45-yard bomb to rookie Tez Johnson for a score and a 6-yard strike to Kameron Johnson.

Crowd chants of “MVP! MVP!” rained down post-game, and even broadcasters like Jim Nantz and Tony Romo echoed it—Mayfield’s now thrown for multiple TDs in five straight starts, a career high. His poise under pressure (taking big hits but delivering) and leadership in a depleted WR room turned a potential trap game into a statement.

That said, it’s a team effort:

• RBs Rachaad White and Sean Tucker: White’s 2-yard TD opened the scoring; Tucker’s 9-yard run extended the lead to 14-10. Their committee (no Bucky Irving) ground out 100+ rushing yards against a stout 49ers front.
• Defense (Kindle Vildor and Jamel Dean): Vildor’s early INT set up the first TD; Dean’s blitz sacked Jones. They forced two turnovers and limited CMC to one score despite SF’s injuries (no Bosa, Kittle, Aiyuk, Warner).
• Rookie WRs stepping up: Tez Johnson’s flip-celebrated TD (and hilarious post-game mix-up thinking chants were for him) and Kameron Johnson’s score kept the passing game alive.

Mayfield gets the bulk because he’s elevating everyone—without his accuracy and decision-making, those backups don’t shine.

Why the Bucs Could Be a Playoff Sleeper

At 5-1 with +2500 Super Bowl odds (implying ~4% chance preseason, now closer to 15-20% implied post-win), Tampa Bay fits the sleeper mold: overlooked entering the year but surging with playoff upside (63% chance to make it, per models).

The risk? Injury pile-up at WR could expose the passing game, and a Monday nighter at Detroit (Week 7) looms large. But if Mayfield stays healthy, this group’s grit—forged in close calls—could mirror the 2020 Bucs’ Cinderella run to the Super Bowl. They’re not just surviving; they’re thriving under the radar.