Which Quarterback Will Lead Their Team to Super Bowl LX in 2025?
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the quarterback position remains the linchpin of Super Bowl aspirations. With elite signal-callers driving their teams’ fortunes, we rank the top 10 quarterbacks with the best chance of leading their squads to Super Bowl LX, analyzing their team’s advantages, disadvantages, front office stability, and potential drama that could derail their playoff run.
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In this 60-minute episode of the Ref-Horrendumb’s NFL Breakdown, host Big John and lead analyst Jesse J dive into the biggest NFL stories from the past three months, including Aaron Rodgers-to-Pittsburgh rumors, the Rams’ blockbuster offseason, and the Commanders’ rise with Jayden Daniels. They unpack sports betting predictions for the 2025 season, naming division winners like the Bills, Ravens, Eagles, and Lions, plus wild card contenders such as the Bengals, 49ers, and a bold Broncos pick.
At the end, we’ll crown the quarterback and team most likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Santa Clara.
Top 10 Quarterbacks with the Best Chance to Reach Super Bowl LX
1. Josh Allen – Buffalo BillsTeam Advantages: Josh Allen, the 2024 NFL MVP, is a dual-threat dynamo, throwing for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for 531 yards and 12 scores in 2024. The Bills’ offense is versatile, with emerging weapons like Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman. Their defense, led by a stout secondary, ranked among the top 10 in EPA allowed per play last season. Buffalo’s schedule is favorable, with winnable games against teams like the Browns, Falcons, and Panthers.
Team Disadvantages: The Bills’ lack of an elite No. 1 receiver since trading Stefon Diggs leaves Allen with a less proven supporting cast. Their playoff history against Kansas City (0-3 in recent postseason matchups) remains a psychological hurdle. The offensive line, while solid, needs to protect Allen better in high-pressure playoff games.
Front Office Strengths: General manager Brandon Beane has built a consistent contender, adeptly navigating the salary cap to add depth while retaining core players. His aggressive offseason moves, like acquiring new offensive pieces, show a commitment to maximizing Allen’s prime.
Potential Drama: The Bills’ front office is stable, but the pressure to finally break through in the playoffs could create tension if early-season struggles arise. Fan expectations are sky-high after near-misses in recent years.
Super Bowl Chances: 10.1% per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), second-best in the league.
2. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore RavensTeam Advantages: Jackson, the 2024 NFL MVP runner-up, posted a 94.9 PFF overall grade, throwing 41 touchdowns and rushing for over 900 yards. The Ravens’ offense is loaded with Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman, complemented by a top-tier rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. Their defense, projected to be above average under new coordinator Al Golden, gives them balance.
Team Disadvantages: Jackson’s postseason record (2-4) is a glaring weakness, with struggles in clutch moments. The offensive line, while improved, must protect Jackson better after he took 44 sacks in 2024. The AFC North’s brutality, with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, poses a challenge.
Front Office Strengths: GM Eric DeCosta’s ability to retain key players like Andrews and bolster the defense through free agency and trades showcases savvy roster management. The hiring of Golden signals a proactive approach to fixing 2024’s defensive woes (23rd in EPA allowed per play).
Potential Drama: Jackson’s postseason narrative could weigh heavily if early playoff struggles persist. Contract talks for pending free agents like Justin Madubuike could distract the front office.
Super Bowl Chances: 11.9% per FPI, the highest in the NFL.
3. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia EaglesTeam Advantages: Hurts, the Super Bowl LIX MVP, is a proven winner, with a 112.8 passer rating in close games and 14 rushing touchdowns in 2024. The Eagles’ offense is a juggernaut, powered by Saquon Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards and weapons like DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Their offensive line is among the NFL’s best, and their defense is stout, ranking top-five in tackling grades.
Team Disadvantages: Hurts’ passing volume was low in 2024 (2,903 yards), relying heavily on the run game, which could be exploited by playoff defenses. The NFC East is competitive, with Washington and Dallas posing threats. Philadelphia’s tough schedule could wear them down.
Front Office Strengths: GM Howie Roseman’s foresight in drafting depth (e.g., Kyle McCord as a backup) and acquiring stars like Barkley makes Philadelphia’s roster one of the deepest. His ability to manage the cap while maintaining a championship core is unmatched.
Potential Drama: The Eagles’ front office is drama-free, but Hurts’ contract, which escalates in 2026, could spark early extension talks, potentially causing a distraction.
Super Bowl Chances: 12% per FPI, the NFC favorite.
4. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City ChiefsTeam Advantages: Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl champion, remains a clutch performer with a 110.4 passer rating on third down in 2024. The Chiefs’ revamped offensive line and returning weapons like Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy bolster his arsenal. Andy Reid’s play-calling genius gives them an edge.
Team Disadvantages: Mahomes’ 2024 season was his least productive (3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns), and the loss to Philadelphia in Super Bowl LIX exposed weaknesses in the offensive line and receiver depth. The AFC West is tougher with coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll.
Front Office Strengths: GM Brett Veach’s aggressive offseason, including line upgrades and retaining Mahomes’ weapons, keeps Kansas City competitive. His ability to navigate a tight cap is commendable.Potential Drama: A Super Bowl hangover is possible, as predicted by FOX Sports, with Mahomes facing pressure to rebound. Travis Kelce’s declining production could spark debates about his role.Super Bowl Chances: 8.5% per FPI, lower than recent years.
5. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati BengalsTeam Advantages: Burrow had a career-best 2024, with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, powering Ja’Marr Chase’s triple crown (127 receptions, 1,708 yards, 17 touchdowns). The Bengals’ offense is elite, and their defense, under new coordinator Al Golden, is projected to be average, a step up from 2024’s 23rd-ranked unit.
Team Disadvantages: Losing Tee Higgins to free agency could limit the offense, and the defense still lacks a clear path to elite status. The AFC North’s physicality and Burrow’s injury history (missed time in 2023) are concerns.
Front Office Strengths: GM Duke Tobin’s frugal approach has kept Burrow and Chase, but failing to secure Higgins shows cap constraints. The Golden hire adds uncertainty but also potential.
Potential Drama: Burrow’s health and the defense’s inconsistency could create locker-room tension. Fan frustration over missing the 2024 playoffs may linger.
Super Bowl Chances: 7.5% per FPI, with a 60% playoff probability.
6. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles RamsTeam Advantages: Stafford, a Super Bowl LVI champion, threw for 4,127 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2024, leveraging Puka Nacua (1,486 yards) and Cooper Kupp. Sean McVay’s play-calling and a top-10 offensive line make the Rams’ offense potent. Their 2024 playoff upset over Detroit shows postseason mettle.
Team Disadvantages: Stafford’s age (37) and injury history (missed four games since 2022) raise durability concerns. The defense, ranked 20th in EPA allowed, lacks consistency, and the NFC West’s competitiveness (49ers, Seahawks) is a hurdle. A tough 2025 schedule, including road games against Philadelphia and Kansas City, adds risk.
Front Office Strengths: GM Les Snead’s bold moves (e.g., retaining Nacua and Kupp, drafting Jared Verse) keep the Rams competitive. His synergy with McVay ensures offensive focus, though defensive investments lag.
Potential Drama: Stafford’s health could spark debates about backup options (e.g., Jimmy Garoppolo). McVay’s intense style and the pressure to repeat 2024’s playoff success may create locker-room tension if early losses pile up.
Super Bowl Chances: 4.0% per FPI, with a 45% playoff probability, reflecting their wild-card potential but defensive limitations.
7. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles ChargersTeam Advantages: Herbert’s 2024 season showed growth under Jim Harbaugh, with 23 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Chargers’ defense is improving, and their playoff appearance in 2024 signals progress. New weapons like Ladd McConkey add firepower.
Team Disadvantages: Herbert’s clutch performance lags behind the elite (highest passing grade in non-clutch situations). The receiving corps lacks a true No. 1, and the AFC West’s coaching upgrades make the division tougher.
Front Office Strengths: GM Joe Hortiz and Harbaugh form a dynamic duo, rebuilding the roster efficiently. Their focus on Herbert’s development and defensive additions is promising.
Potential Drama: Harbaugh’s intense style could clash with players if early losses mount. Herbert’s lack of playoff success could fuel skepticism.
Super Bowl Chances: 5.2% per FPI, with a 47.9% playoff probability.
8. Jayden Daniels – Washington CommandersTeam Advantages: Daniels, the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year, threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 891 yards. GM Adam Peters’ additions (Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel) and a top-10 offensive line give Daniels elite support. The defense, led by Dan Quinn, pressured quarterbacks effectively in the playoffs.
Team Disadvantages: Daniels’ sophomore slump risk is real, as seen with C.J. Stroud. The NFC East’s competitiveness and a tougher 2025 schedule could test Washington’s depth.
Front Office Strengths: Peters’ aggressive trades and drafts have transformed Washington into a contender. His alignment with Quinn ensures stability.
Potential Drama: High expectations after a deep 2024 playoff run could pressure Daniels. Quinn’s defensive focus might create offensive-defensive tension if balance falters.
Super Bowl Chances: 4.8% per FPI, with a 54% playoff probability.
9. Jared Goff – Detroit LionsTeam Advantages: Goff’s 72.4% completion rate and 128.9 third-down passer rating in 2024 made him a top passer. The Lions’ elite offensive line and weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs (projected for 2,500 scrimmage yards) create a dynamic offense. Their defense ranks top-five in tackling.
Team Disadvantages: Losing coordinator Ben Johnson could disrupt offensive cohesion, and Goff’s playoff struggles (85.1 career postseason passer rating) raise doubts. His lack of mobility limits improvisation.
Front Office Strengths: GM Brad Holmes has built a balanced roster, but replacing Johnson’s play-calling brilliance is a gamble. His draft success (e.g., Gibbs) is a strength.
Potential Drama: Goff’s ability to adapt to a new coordinator could spark debate if the offense stumbles. Fan pressure for a Super Bowl is intense after 2024’s near-miss.
Super Bowl Chances: 6.3% per FPI, with a 41% division-win probability.
10. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay BuccaneersTeam Advantages: Mayfield’s career-best 2024 (4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns) powered Tampa to the playoffs. Mike Evans and a strong offensive line provide reliability, and the defense remains solid under Todd Bowles.
Team Disadvantages: Losing coordinator Liam Coen and potentially Chris Godwin to free agency could disrupt the offense. Mayfield’s turnover issues (16 interceptions) persist. The NFC South is winnable but inconsistent.
Front Office Strengths: GM Jason Licht’s continuity with Bowles and smart cap management keep Tampa competitive, but Godwin’s potential exit tests their depth.
Potential Drama: Mayfield’s new coordinator, Josh Grizzard, introduces uncertainty. His contract’s cap hit jump to $35.8 million could spark roster debates.
Super Bowl Chances: 3.9% per FPI, with a strong playoff probability.
11. C.J. Stroud – Houston TexansTeam Advantages: Stroud rebounded from a sophomore slump to lead Houston to a wild-card win in 2024. Weapons like Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, plus a solid offensive line, give him tools to succeed. The defense is young and improving.
Team Disadvantages: Stroud’s pressure-to-sack rate (63 sacks in 2024) is a major issue. The Texans’ play-calling was inconsistent, and the AFC South’s rising teams (Jacksonville, Indianapolis) add pressure.
Front Office Strengths: GM Nick Caserio’s trade for Diggs and line investments show boldness, but play-calling hires need improvement.
Potential Drama: Stroud’s sack issues could frustrate coaches, and the front office’s reluctance to fully commit to offensive upgrades may cause tension.
Super Bowl Chances: 4.5% per FPI, with a 50% playoff probability.
Team with the Best Chance: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, have the best shot at winning Super Bowl LX. Their favorable schedule, balanced roster, and Allen’s MVP-caliber play give them an edge. The Ravens (Lamar Jackson) are close, with the highest FPI odds (11.9%), but their postseason struggles and tougher division slightly lower their chances. The Eagles (Jalen Hurts) are the NFC’s strongest contender, but their reliance on the run game and brutal schedule make Buffalo’s path clearer.
Super Bowl LX Winner: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Allen’s versatility, combined with Buffalo’s roster depth and easier schedule, positions them to defeat the Eagles in a gritty Super Bowl LX, as predicted by Sports Illustrated. Allen’s ability to overcome the Chiefs’ playoff hex and his hunger for a ring make him the quarterback to watch in 2025.
Final Rankings for Super Bowl Chances:
- Josh Allen (Bills)
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
- Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
- Joe Burrow (Bengals)
- Justin Herbert (Chargers)
- Jayden Daniels (Commanders)
- Jared Goff (Lions)
- Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)
- C.J. Stroud (Texans)
Big John
I have an Associates & Bachelors Degree in Criminology with a minor in Political Science. I've been blogging since around 2017, my work has been viewed by over a million people. My works from FinFlam and FinFlam Sports have been talked about on many of the largest news outlets in the world from Reuters, USA Today, Politifact, CheckYourFact.com, The Quint and many other outlets.
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