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The New York Giants’ odds of making the playoffs in the 2025 NFL season with Russell Wilson as their quarterback are long, reflecting skepticism about their roster and overall competitiveness.
Current betting odds give the Giants a +750 chance to make the playoffs, implying an 11.76% probability. Their Super Bowl odds are listed at +20000, and NFC East odds are +2700, placing them among the least favored teams in both categories. These figures stem from their dismal 3-14 record in 2024 and a roster with lingering weaknesses, despite some offseason additions.
Key Factors Influencing the Odds:
Quarterback Situation: Russell Wilson and Who?
Russell Wilson: At 36, Wilson signed a one-year, $10.5 million guaranteed deal (up to $21 million with incentives). In 2024 with Pittsburgh, he went 6-5 in 11 starts, throwing for 2,482 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, with a 95.6 passer rating (14th in the NFL).
His early 6-1 start showed promise, but a late-season five-game losing streak highlighted inconsistency. His arm strength and deep-ball ability remain assets, but reduced mobility and occasional poor decision-making limit his ceiling. He’s a clear upgrade over the Giants’ 2024 quarterback play (Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito), which ranked 28th in passing yards (189.9 per game) and 31st in points (16.1 per game). However, Wilson is seen as a bridge quarterback, not a transformative force.
Jameis Winston and Tommy DeVito: Winston, on a two-year, $8 million deal, is a capable backup with starter experience, while DeVito is a depth piece. The Giants’ quarterback room is more stable than last year but lacks elite upside. There’s also speculation they’ll draft a quarterback (e.g., Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward) with their No. 3 pick, which could shift dynamics if a rookie plays.
Offensive Roster:
Strengths: The Giants have a promising young core. Wide receiver Malik Nabers, a 2024 rookie, set a franchise record with 109 receptions for 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns, making him a legitimate WR1. Wan’Dale Robinson (93 catches, 699 yards) and Darius Slayton (re-signed) provide reliable targets. Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (839 rushing yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 284 receiving yards) is a versatile weapon. Wilson’s deep-ball prowess should mesh well with Nabers and Slayton.
Weaknesses: The offensive line remains a concern despite optimism about its 2024 performance before LT Andrew Thomas’ injury (2.3 sacks per game allowed in Weeks 1-6 vs. 3.1 in Weeks 7-17). Devin Singletary, replacing Saquon Barkley, is serviceable but not dynamic. The lack of a clear TE1 and depth at skill positions could hinder offensive consistency. The offense ranked 30th in total yards (294.8 per game) in 2024, and Wilson alone may not elevate it significantly.
Defensive Roster:
The Giants added defensive backs Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland in free agency, bolstering a secondary that struggled last year. The defensive line, led by Dexter Lawrence, is solid but needs more depth. The team’s 1-11 record in NFC games and 0-6 in the NFC East in 2024 reflect defensive inconsistencies, particularly in close games (1-8 in one-score games). New coaching direction may help, but the unit isn’t elite enough to carry a mediocre offense.
Schedule and Division:
The NFC East is formidable, with the Philadelphia Eagles (reigning Super Bowl champs) and Dallas Cowboys as heavy favorites. The Washington Commanders, coming off a strong 2024, also pose a challenge. The Giants’ 0-6 divisional record last year and a tough 2025 schedule (opponents’ 2024 win percentage likely high) make a playoff push daunting. Their win total is projected at 4.5, tied for the lowest in the NFL, reflecting a brutal path.
Coaching and Management:
GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll are under intense pressure after a 3-14 season. Daboll’s reputation as a “quarterback whisperer” will be tested with Wilson, but his offensive scheme hasn’t clicked since 2022. The team’s strategy to “straddle a rebuild and compete” by signing Wilson and Winston while eyeing a draft quarterback suggests a lack of clear direction, which could hinder cohesion.
Analysis: The Giants’ playoff chances hinge on Wilson delivering above-average quarterback play, the offensive line holding up, and the young core (Nabers, Tracy) taking a leap. A best-case scenario—Wilson replicating his early 2024 Steelers form, the defense improving, and the team stealing a few divisional games—could push them to 7-10 or 8-9, potentially enough for a wild-card spot in a weaker NFC.
Historical data supports some optimism: teams with poor one-score game records (like the Giants’ 1-8 in 2024) often improve, averaging a 44.8% win rate in such games the next year, which could net 4-5 wins in close contests.
However, the more likely outcome is continued mediocrity. Wilson’s age and recent inconsistency, combined with roster holes (offensive line, defensive depth) and a tough division, cap their ceiling. The +750 odds reflect this, as does the 4.5 win total.
Even with Wilson’s leadership and experience, the Giants are likely a year away from true contention, especially if they draft a rookie quarterback who needs time to develop.
